A bizarre Week 6 concludes with a great inter-divison matchup between the Lions and Packers. The Lions have impressed early on this year with wins over the Eagles and Chargers, and one could definitely argue they should be 4-0 right now as they blew late leads vs both Arizona and KC. The Packers are coming off a demolition of Dallas and have run roughshod over just about everyone so far this year. You know the league is in trouble if Green Bay has figured things out defensively and still have some guy named Aaron Rodgers leading the offense. Green Bay will look to extend their division lead tonight against the upstart Lions.
The Packers have completely turned over a new leaf under new head coach Matt LaFleur. No longer is the defense a complete sieve, and its already won them games this season. Although they are middle of the pack in YPP at 5.8, they are 13th in both Red Zone TD% and 3rd down conversion rate. Even league average defenses are huge for a QB as talented as Rodgers. To complement Rodgers’ immense talent and IQ, Aaron Jones and the rushing attack have kept defenses honest all season, opening things up for Rodgers like never before. This Packers team has been rolling and look every bit the part of a potential contender come January.
Detroit is going through something of a turnaround as well. After a disappointing first season with Matt Patricia at the helm, he looks to have molded his defense into his own after 20 games. If anyone reads this regularly or sees my tweets, you know I am an avid Chiefs fan. While the Lions defense did give up 27 to Mahomes and co., the secondary was flying around the ball, and forced roughly 15 fumbles via Tillman punch in that contest. The secondary was solid all day long, and as a whole, they are excellent in the red zone, ranking top 10 in Red Zone TD%. Through the first four games, the Achilles heel has been on 3rd downs. Detroit is surrendering a 46% conversion rate on 3rd downs, good for 27th in the league. We saw it two weeks ago against Mahomes, and we’re sure to see it tonight. When facing an elite QB who can extend the play, you have to get off the field on 3rd downs or you are in for a very long night.
The Lions are coming off an early season bye which you can tell is definitely baked in to this line. Ultimately, I think the Packers are too balanced and too talented to let a game like this slip away. This is a chance to step on the throat of a division rival and really put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack. I have the Packers around -4.5 in this one which gives us some definite value through a key number. However, the way things have gone thus far this year I’m sure that doesn’t mean anything. After moving to 0-69 on teasers for the year, we’re done there for sure. Three times this year I’ve gotten the side right and blown the total. Insanity is expecting different results from the same process, so we adjust tonight and lay the points with the Packers.
- Green Bay -3.5 +100
- Green Bay most first downs -145 .5x
- Aaron Jones o68.5 -110 .5x