Week 9 concludes with an old school NFC East rivalry with the Cowboys taking on the Giants in the Meadowlands. The Cowboys are vying for another NFC East title while the Giants are doing one of the worst things possible, being a bad team whilst not full-on tanking. However, the Giants are very capable offensively between Saquon Barkley and rookie QB Daniel Jones, who is at least showing some competency. The Cowboys should easily win this game on paper, but these are the same Boys we saw lose to the Jets, yes, the goddamn Jets.
The Cowboys this season seemed to finally find their offensive footing this year under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Dallas is tops in the league on that side of the ball, averaging 6.7 YPP. They are also first in 3rd down conversion rate, and top 10 in red zone TD rate. It took a generation, but Cowboys fans finally don’t have to watch Scott Linehan dial up the same four plays over and over again. Tackle Cameron Fleming is out, as is the perpetually injured Sean Lee, but the Cowboys are pretty healthy otherwise. Defensively, the Cowboys have been pretty average, we can definitely expect some big plays from both sides tonight. However, Dallas defense has been “bend, don’t break” all year, ranking top 10 in red zone TD rate, and are a top 10 yeam in yards per pass attempt. Look for Dallas to try to keep everything in front of them and force Danny Dimes to beat them through the air.
It’s tough to get a real feel for the data available to us when it comes to the Giants. A QB switch halfway through the season, and their transcendent RB (whether you’re of the camp that RBs don’t matter is a different story) being out for four games, and the team adjusting to losing their top wideout, there’s a lot of noise in the numbers. What we can confirm is the defense is the weak point for this team. Coming in ranking in the bottom third for 3rd down conversion rate as well as in the bottom quarter in YPP, it doesn’t exactly give inspire hope that they are capable of slowing down the high-powered Dallas offense. As strange as it sounds, I imagine New York will want Dallas to run the ball just so they can keep the ball out of Dak Prescott’s hands.
I anticipate a lot of points being scored tonight, as does the market with a total of 48.5. Expecting a lot of targets and rushing attempts for Barkley, he’s going to get the lion’s share of the touches throughout the game, getting plus money on him can’t be a bad thing here. This Witten number seems awfully high to me, he hasn’t seen too many targets so far this season, a fairly marginal role, so I’m sure tonight he’ll go for 6-78 and 2 TD’s. Vamos points!
- Barkley TD +115
- Over 48.5 -102
- Witten under 34.5 yards -110
- 12-24 -10.95x