Week 10 concludes with… a decent.. MNF.. matchup?! What a world! 7-2 Seahawks travel to take on the undefeated, 8-0 49ers in Santa Clara. It took 10 weeks, but we finally have a good Monday night game on our hands. Week 10 was one of the wackiest weeks of the season, with the Saints losing by double digits as double digit faves, the Chiefs blowing a two possession lead to the goddamn Titans in the final 10 mins of the game, and the Colts losing as double digit faves to the Dolphins. Really tough week if you’re still alive in your survivor pool.
The Seahawks are coming in off a close win at home against Tampa Bay. I’m a little bit down on Seattle despite their record. They’re a whopping 7-1 in one score games, and 4-0 in games decided by 4 points or less. They’re barely scraping by in these games, banking on the magic of Russell Wilson every week. The defense isn’t what we’re used to seeing out of a Pete Carroll Seahawks team, as Seattle is allowing a whopping 6.2 YPP, coming in at 30th in the league. As mentioned earlier, this is a team heavily reliant on Russell Wilson to work his magic and outscore teams in shootouts. Seattle has a top 10 offense in the league, averaging 6 YPP, good for 8th overall. Wilson succeeding in spite of his OL is evident. He is constantly have to scramble, and is a frontrunner for league MVP halfway through the year. He’s averaging 8 YPA, and has led the Hawks to a top 5 red zone offense as well. He’s quite literally put the team on his back, and despite being 1.5 games back of San Fran, they still control their own destiny as far as the division and playoff seeding goes.
Coming off a Thursday night divisional road win at Arizona, the 49ers get some extra rest before taking on the Seahawks. San Francisco has probably proven me wrong more than any other team this season. Every time I’ve doubted them they have answered the call, and their peripherals agree as well, this team is just a juggernaut. Averaging +1.3 net YPP, San Francisco has one of the top defenses in the league. Defense wins championships, especially in the NFL, and their defense has helped raise a league average offense to an undefeated season thus far. They’re the top-ranked defense in the red-zone, allowing only 31% of entries to be converted into touchdowns. Contrast this with Seattle’s efficient red zone offense, and this should be the biggest key to the game. If San Fran can hold Seattle to 2 or 3 field goal attempts, I really like their chances to cover this game. Seattle’s defense hasn’t appeared to be able to hold up for all four quarters yet, look for San Francisco to wear them down with the running combo of Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman.
Thursday night’s matchup went almost exactly as planned. Oakland getting points was one of my favorite plays in recent years, a perfect combination of a letdown spot for Los Angeles, and one of the last primetime games the city of Oakland will ever see. If I hadn’t seen such poor results this season I would’ve had the stones to press for a rare 2x play, but it wasn’t meant to be. I’m looking for San Francisco to keep their undefeated season alive, and cover the spread as well.
- San Francisco -6 -105
- 16-27 -8.35x