John Warner analyzes tonight’s MNF matchup between the Colts and Saints and offers up his favorite bets for the game!
Week 15 concludes with our next to last Monday Night game of the year between the Colts and the Saints in New Orleans.
The Colts, on the brink of elimination after losing five of their last six, were a nice story at the beginning of the year but injuries have derailed their hot start. They have to win out and get a LOT of help if they are going to get in to the playoffs.
The Saints, on the other hand, have their division wrapped up and are pushing towards another potential bye in the playoffs. With a win tonight, they would be the fourth team at 11-3 in the NFC, with games remaining at Tennessee and at Carolina. Two teams going in opposite directions, but that’s why we play the games!
Indianapolis has been a balanced team offensively all year. They play for ball control, try to grind you down, and win in the trenches. Frank Reich has done a great job all year masking the weaknesses of this team, but the defense has been getting exposed the last month.
They’ve allowed 48% of 3rd downs to be converted, ranking 3rd to last in YPP at 6.4 and 2nd to last in YPA at a whopping 8.9. To say the Colts defense has been declining is an understatement. And no big deal or anything but now you get to face Payton, Brees and Thomas in New Orleans on primetime, good luck!
Offensively, Indianapolis has a real weapon in Marlon Mack, but unfortunately their other great skill position player T.Y. Hilton can’t stay on the field this year, although he is expected to be fine for tonight’s matchup.
New Orleans has essentially had two seasons in one this year, one with Drew Brees and one without. The iteration without him was straight up dominant defensively, and since he’s come back they have found their offensive groove back while simultaneously losing their defensive swagger.
Ranking in the top ten in YPP, YPA and 3rd down conversion rate, Brees and Michael Thomas have this group humming again. If there’s any weakness one could point to, it would be that they have been slowed down in the red zone.
The Colts implemented a bend but don’t break defense against the Texans, Chiefs, and Falcons to perfection this year, but as we stated earlier, they have been on their worst form the last month or so.
The Saints defense, on the other hand, has been decent over the course of the year, but have certainly taken a step back in recent weeks. I’m really not sure how to gauge last week’s thriller vs San Francisco. The Saints managed to hold teams to six, nine and 10 points in the first half of the year, but also surrendered 48 and 31 in the last three weeks. Was last week an outlier or a sign of things to come?
Overall, I’m liking points to be scored tonight. Nothing pops out as far as props, everything feels appropriately priced. If only everything was easy as each Baltimore game seems to be. They’re looking so dominant at this point it would be surprising if they don’t at least make it to the Super Bowl. Hopefully, tonight’s game goes just as smoothly as Thursday’s did.
- New Orleans -3/over 41 6 point tease -110
- 23-40 -14.2x