Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL MNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
A wild Week 10 concludes with the upstart Minnesota Vikings going to Chicago to face the downtrodden Bears. Minnesota are 3-point favorites tonight, despite being two games back of Chicago and on the road. The Vikings have put together a good string of games on the back of Dalvin Cook, with Kirk Cousins not absolutely killing them anymore. The Bears have been in a tailspin for the last few weeks, something we predicted when we talked about them 3 weeks ago against the Rams. They had all the makings of being the bad team with a good record that we always see for the first month or two of the year, and we can definitely feel vindicated there.
For Minnesota, they started off looking like the team with the nightmare season going 1-5 with two 1 point losses, but Dalvin Cook has played Superman going off for 478 all-purpose yards and 6 TDs the last two weeks, putting the team on his back to bring them back to 3-5 at the midway point this year. Because of this, Minnesota has the best offense in the league on a YPP basis, averaging 6.6 yards per play, and a whopping 7.6 YPP the last three games. They’re also 2nd in the league at red zone conversions, cashing in on 77% of their entries. The rub for the Vikings lies with their defense. They’re allowing over 6 YPP, good for 25th in the league, but they have been excellent at bending but not breaking. Minnesota is 6th in the league in red zone conversion rate, allowing only 54% of entries to become TDs. We’ll see how much that matters tonight against what could easily be the most anemic offense in the NFC.
The Bears and Matt Nagy have been desperately looking for consistency from the QB position for three years now, and it doesn’t look like help is coming any time soon. Switching from Trubisky to Foles after 3 games, Chicago is the only team in the NFC averaging below 5 yards per play, coming in at 4.8, good for 31st in the league. If you’re waiting to hear any good news in regard to Chicago’s offense, you’ll be waiting for a long time! They’re 30th in the league in red zone conversion rate, 31st at 3rd down conversion rate, and 30th in YPA. Just gouge-your-eyes-out awful. Chicago is being kept afloat this season solely because of their defense, which very well could be the best in the league. Chicago ranks top 10 in the three major categories we look at, coming in at 1st in both red zone conversion rate and 3rd down conversion rate. They also come in ranked 4th in YPP at 5.1 yards. For Chicago to have a path to winning tonight, the defense is going to have ball out, contain Cook for all 60 minutes, and hope Foles can work some of his patented underdog magic.
No excuses for Thursday night, just an outright horrible play. I can honestly say if you told me the final score of the game was 34-17, I would have thought we won our Tennessee bet for sure. But the Colts defense and special teams were both dominant in the 2nd half, sending the Titans home with their tail between their legs. Tonight I expect to see Minnesota have just enough to win and cover, with Chicago’s defense putting up a serious fight, but in the end, it not being enough, as the Bears offense is just too much to overcome.
Monday Night Football Bets
Minnesota -3 -120
Dalvin Cook over 85.5 rushing yards -105 .5x
Foles under 276.5 passing yards -115 .5x
Season Total: 21-23-2 -1.64x