Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL MNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 11 concludes with a most excellent NFC showdown between the Rams of Los Angeles and the Buccaneers of Tampa Bay. The Rams are coming off a home win against Seattle, having won 4 of their last 6. The Bucs are hot off a blowout win of Carolina and have won 4 of their last 5. With 7 games to go, the NFC’s playoff teams are already pretty much set, just a matter of jockeying for position at this point, and with a win tonight, LA could vault to 2nd in the conference. These are the two best defenses in the league on a YPP basis, with LA edging out Tampa, and I’m expecting a grinder of a game that comes down to the last possession.
The Bucs have already had a roller coaster of a 2020, laying the egg of the season two weeks ago on Sunday night at home, losing 38-3 to New Orleans. One would anticipate that Brady will have his troops ready for sure this time around. Despite the performance last week, the Bucs have been a league average offense in many aspects so far, including YPP and red zone conversion rate. Brady is going to have to make some difficult throws tonight against the league’s premier secondary, all while having perpetual DPOY Aaron Donald breathing down his neck. Their defense is going to have to hold serve tonight, as that is what’s going to make them a tough outcome January (so long as they don’t have to see New Orleans).
Los Angeles has so much in place for team success, that they really don’t ask too much of Jared Goff. How he performs will determine how far they end up going this year. I’m personally not a fan of Goff and think that he is holding this team back. Regardless of what the #eyetest tells me, Goff has led LA to a top 10 passing offense so far, averaging 7.3 YPA. LA is also 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, and 13th in red zone conversion rate. Goff is going to have to be excellent tonight against a superb Tampa Bay defense as well. My hesitation with Los Angeles is that their schedule has largely been a joke, having swept the NFC East, and getting to face the Bears. They’re just now starting to get into the meat of their schedule, where we can really see what kind of team they are.
Thursday night was a wreck from the beginning, with Kyler getting hurt pretty much immediately out of the gate. No excuses though, two bad bets, and to quote GOAT Belichick, we’re on to Cincinnati. Really tough lines tonight, with nothing really jumping off the board, even the prop market looking pretty tight tonight. A couple of light bets for us in Tampa tonight as we restart our quest to getting back in the black this year.
Monday Night Football Bets
Under 48.5 -108
Goff Under 1.5 TD passes +150 .5x
Season Total: 24-25-2 -1.99x