Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL MNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 16 and the 2020 MNF season come to a close with YOUR AFC East champion Buffalo Bills visiting the impoverished New England Patriots. We’d have to go back half a lifetime ago to the last time the Bills were touchdown favorites at Foxborough. With only playoff seeding on the line, Buffalo is looking to keep pace with Pittsburgh, who improved to 12-3 with a win over Indianapolis. On paper, this should be a comfortable win for the AFC East Champs. But you know there’s a part of that psycho Belichick that relishes in the opportunity to play spoiler and give his friends in Buffalo an extra road playoff game.
Buffalo has been absolutely dynamite offensively this season, with the top ranked offense on 3rd downs, and coming in at 6th in YPP. Josh Allen has had an MVP caliber season, and the acquisition of Stefon Diggs has done wonders for reshaping the Bills identity. With star CB Stephon Gilmore out, look for Diggs to make a ton of noise tonight. The defense has taken a bit of a step back this year, about a league average unit in every phase and metric we look at, but the offense has more than made up for any potential shortcomings. Buffalo has a chance to be the first divisional opponent to sweep the Pats since the Jets did so in 2000. Just… what the hell is that. But this has been a quick return to the Pit of Reality for the Patriots, and their fans get to enjoy meaningless football for the first time in two decades.
The Patriots have been a nightmare offensively all season, failing to score a touchdown in each of their last two games. Cam Newton has been horrendous the last month, averaging just 120 yards per game, with a lone passing TD, 2 TDs on the ground and 2 INTs. He has little to no help as far as skill position players however, with their best player being… Jakobi Meyers? Pretty rough! To make matters worse, New England had a whopping 20 players end up questionable on the injury report this week, on top of losing the aforementioned Gilmore for the season. The roadmap to a New England upset is going to have to be to grind this game down, reduce possessions, and will need to win the turnover battle by at least 2. Buffalo is too loaded offensively for the battered Patriots defense to handle for all 60 minutes. If they have a shot tonight, it’s going to be by containing the Diggs with J.C. Jackson and getting pressure on Allen.
Just a miserable bet that was over by halftime last week, with Cincinnati doubling up their team total against Pittsburgh. Any time you lose a bet by halftime due to Ryan Finley you just have to shake it off and rip your cap. We’ve got one more shot before the playoffs to get back in black, and we’re joining the circling of the wagons, and the mighty Bills of Buffalo. They just have too much firepower for the banged-up Pats to deal with, and I don’t trust the QB formerly known as SuperCam to be able to keep pace.
Monday Night Football Bets
Bills TT o27 -110
Bills -1/over 41 6 pt. tease -110
Season Total: 31-31-2 -0.79x