John Warner previews this week’s NFL MNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 4 concludes with a surprise doubleheader with New England at Kansas City getting postponed, and the original game of Atlanta at Green Bay. The only caveat is that Cam Newton has coronavirus so that game loses its luster just a tad, which is a real shame because not it appears New England really doesn’t stand a chance. Atlanta and Green Bay are two teams going in very opposite directions, with the Falcons seemingly unable to get out of their own way in their 0-3 start and the Packers, who have been keeping their foot on the gas and have begun their season 3-0.
Kansas City is suddenly playing on back to back Monday’s and will wind up playing three games in ten days. They’re hot off an ass kicking of Baltimore, and now get to wind up facing Brian Hoyer instead of Cam. New England’s defense hasn’t been their typical Belichick-ian selves to begin this year, surrendering 6.2 YPP and a whopping 7.8 YPA. Andy Reid has had fantastic battles with Belichick since arriving in KC and has been able to put up 40+ in 3 of their 6 matchups. It’s tough to see a path where the Patriots will be able to win this game, short of catastrophic injury. Mahomes went scorched earth last week against Baltimore, putting in one of the best performances of his young career. A lot of people don’t talk about it, but I think Mahomes is one of these psychos who takes every slight as a reason to obliterate them on the field. We saw it last season in Chicago as he counted to 10 (signifying where he was selected in the draft) and we saw it last week when he counted to 4 (his “rank” in the NFL Top 100). So best of luck to New England, who we know gave Mahomes his first two deep scars back in 2018.
For Atlanta, it’s been the same old Dan Quinn Falcons. They’ve blown leads of 16+ in back to back weeks, pulling a loss from the grasp of victory. It’s simply incredible how this keeps happening. Luckily for them now their sieve of a defense gets to face a locked-in Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has had an MVP-level 1st quarter of the season, putting up 43, 40 and 37 points in the first three weeks. Rodgers is averaging 8.2 YPA, and Atlanta surrendering 7.8 YPA, none of these things spell “a good time” for the Falcons. I’m expecting an air raid to the highest degree on Monday night from both favorites, and it’s going to take a Herculean effort to keep Rodgers and Mahomes under wraps.
We took a tough loss on the teaser on Thursday, with the under standing no chance whatsoever. Three TDs of over 40 yards, a pick six, and three FGs of over 50 yards? You’re gonna have a bad time. Hats off to the Jets for surrendering 37 to a QB making his first start. But we move on. It’s tough to go in any other direction than to back the two best QBs and teams tonight, and as square as it looks, these NFL overs have been hitting at just a stupid rate. It’s a matter of time before we start seeing totals in the mid-50s become a mainstay, rather than the outlier.
Monday Night Football Bets
Chiefs 1st-Half Team Total Over 14.5 -115
Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Passing TDs +100
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs +100
Packers PK/Over 50.5/Chiefs -4.5/Over 43.5 6-point teaser +280 .5x
Season Total: 7-9-1 -0.67x