Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL MNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 7 closes with a decent matchup here between the 5-1 (how) Chicago Bears and 4-2 Los Angeles Rams. This looks to be a battle of which QB can make the least number of mistakes against two excellent defenses. Neither team has faced a murderer’s row of opponents so far, but defense translates against anyone, and we should be in for an excellent matchup tonight.
The Bears have been the luck box team of the century 6 weeks in, with four of their five wins coming by 4 points or less. You can’t take anything away from their defense, but the offense has been far less inspiring thus far. HC Matt Nagy came over from Kansas City a few years ago as an offensive head coach, but Chicago just can’t seem to figure things out on that end. Chicago ranks 29th in 3rd down conversion rate, 30th in YPP, and 26th in red zone touchdown rate, and not against any great defenses either. But their defense has been outstanding, hiding almost any offensive deficiencies the Bears may have. Chicago ranks 1st in red zone touchdown rate, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in YPP, and 3rd in YPA. The defensive unit have single handedly kept them in games, and against a limited QB like Jared Goff, that may well be enough for the Bears to edge out another win tonight.
The Rams have been tough for me to gauge this year. Congrats to you for being the NFC East champs, and going 4-0 against the worst division in NFL history, does that mean anything? I know you can only play who’s in front of you, but because of this, I feel a lot of the Rams stats are inflated. Nonetheless, their defense has been every bit of dominant that Chicago’s has. Aaron Donald looks to be a lock for yet another DPOY award, leading Los Angeles to 1st in YPA and 6th in 3rd down conversion rate. The concern is allowing 63% of red zone entries to become touchdowns, middle of the pack so far. LA’s offense has also been hovering around league average, which seems appropriate considering who is leading them. HC Sean McVay’s 2018 looks better and better each week to me, as we see more and more of Jared Goff.
Thursday was naturally our first sweep of the year, on two half unit plays. Wouldn’t wanna make too much cash now! Regardless, we’re getting a good feel for each team and division as we approach the midway point. I’m really liking both defenses tonight, which assuredly means we will be getting a defensive TD or two to screw over what looks like a great under opportunity here.
Monday Night Football Bets
Under 44.5 -105
Nick Foles under 242.5 passing yards -115
Under 40.5 +155 .5x
1h Under 17.5 +175 .5x
Season Total: 13-16-2 -0.92x