Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL TNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 11 kicks off with one of the best games of this week’s slate as the Seattle Seahawks try to get their revenge at home against the upstart Arizona Cardinals. This is a monster game for the Seahawks and their playoff seeding as a loss would make it near impossible to win the division, being back a game and losing the tiebreaker to both LA and Arizona. Arizona won what was probably the most entertaining game of the year the last time these two teams played, inching out an insane 37-34 OT win which saw the Cards come back from 10 down with 2:30 left just to force OT.
The Cardinals are probably a year ahead of schedule of their rebuild, but with Kyler Murray playing at an MVP level, he has led this team atop the NFC West to this point. They may have gotten a bit lucky last week against the Bills, but that’s exactly why you trade for the best WR in the NFL in Deandre Hopkins (Hi Bill O’Brien you fucking goof). Kyler has set the world on fire in just his second year as a starter and I know Cards fans are losing their damn minds at how quickly this all happened. Kyler has led the Cards offense to a top ten offensive ranking in just about every category you can imagine. It sounds counterintuitive in these games with totals in the mid-50s, but the defense is what’s going to make the difference tonight. Arizona is the team that got Wilson going on this turnover stretch he’s had, with 10 in his last four games. With how well Murray has played, even just a couple stops could be the difference in the game.
The Seahawks got dominated by the Rams last week, even if it wasn’t reflected by the score. The Rams defensive line completely dictated the game and forced Russell Wilson into 3 turnovers (2 more turnovers than the real MVP, Patrick Mahomes, has all season). Russ should have an easier time tonight, but we know the Cardinals will be ready to make a statement as well, as they’ve been competitive in all 9 games thus far. For Seattle, the key is (obviously) going to be getting off the field on 3rd down. Seattle ranks just 30th in the league in 3rd down defense, which does not bode well against a ridiculously slick player such as Murray. Keeping contain on Kyler is much easier said than done, and it’s going to take a Herculean effort from the ‘Hawks front to do so.
Arizona’s defense in the red zone is ranked 2nd in the league allowing just 52% of entries to be converted into TDs. Seattle is tops in the league by far in red zone efficiency, scoring TDs over 81% of the time. Real galaxy brain stuff here saying that if Arizona gets stops in the red zone, they’re more likely to win the game, but all things considered, these teams are incredibly even, right down to their respective QB’s ability. And it’s for that reason that we don’t have a play on a side tonight, as this is a classic interdivisional 3-point spread. I have this Seattle -2.5 personally, but certainly not any edge worth our time there. To the derivative markets we go!
Thursday Night Football Bets
Kyler Murray Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -115
Cardinals 1h TT Over 13 -120
Season Total: 24-23-2 +0.36x