Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL TNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 14 kicks off with the New England Patriots staying in Los Angeles for a Super Bowl rematch with the Rams. Tonight’s game will be better than Super Bowl 53, simply because that Super Bowl was a horrible watch, and the quality has nowhere to go but up. McVay said that woeful night against Bill Belichick was “humbling”, and that couldn’t have been more apt as the Rams were woeful on offense and managed only 3 points. Just a couple things are different between these two teams this go-around, namely that Brady guy won’t be under center for New England, but you can bet McVay has been foaming at the mouth for another shot at Belichick. This time he’ll have to slow down another league MVP in Cam Newton.
The Patriots have won each of their last two games, without having to throw the ball pretty much at all. Cam has thrown for less than 100 yards in each of those games, including a 45-0 ass-kicking of the Chargers. I don’t think this will work out well against a much better defense in the Rams, but the Patriots don’t really have a choice. Not only has Cam struggled passing this year, while also dealing with COVID recovery, the Patriots receivers are a lackluster group and have not gotten the proper separation that Cam needs to succeed. The Patriots defense hasn’t been the dominating force it usually is under Belichick, coming in at league average for below average in the three metrics we usually look at, (YPP, 3rd down conversion rate and red zone conversion rate), and it’s going to be in the red zone where Los Angeles will have to separate themselves from New England tonight.
The Rams control their playoff destiny with four games to go, if they win their next two games, they are in. Goff has been my boogeyman all year, this is the third time this year the Rams have been on a primetime day, and we are 0-2 on his props this year. Fool me a third time… can’t get fooled again. He has another “prove it” game here tonight, with a chance to avenge Belichick exposing his shortcomings for all 60 minutes two years ago. As we mentioned earlier, this Patriots defense isn’t as dominating as it usually is, but you know they will be disciplined, and Belichick is just as good as ever. Los Angeles has been a top offense all year long, ranking in the top 10 in all our Big 3 of metrics, and that unit is going to have to put together a few nice drives to support Aaron Donald and co. The Rams have arguably the best defense in the NFL, and when teams are as one-dimensional as New England is, it usually doesn’t work out well for them. Be on the lookout for some trickeration from New England tonight, knowing they need to steal a possession, as well as grind out the field position matchup, to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
We had a nice little three game sweep on Monday including a nice cash of Football Team ML to ruin the Steelers perfect season bid, keeping us from just outside from being back in black. I’m looking for another defensive grinder between these two, which is exactly what I said between Tompa Bay and LAR a few weeks ago as Goff went crazy to push it over. Regardless, the talent between Belichick and the Rams defense is too great, and figures to flex its collective muscle against two limited QBs.
Thursday Night Football Bets
Under 44 -105
Newton Longest Pass Under 30.5 yards -110
Season Total: 28-28-2 -0.37x