John Warner previews this week’s NFL TNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 3 gets started with one of the worst games of the week as we get to check out Minshew Mania take on the Fighting Fitzpatrick’s of Miami. This would be a lot more fun if we got to see Tua trot out there instead, but we’ll probably have to wait a couple more weeks for that. I never understood spending a first round pick on a QB if you weren’t gonna play him right away. But any time you can give more PT to a career journeyman in Fitzpatrick, you have to do it I suppose. We’ll see if that’s a worthwhile decision as we head out to Duval County tonight.
The Dolphins finished last season on a decent tear, winning five of their last nine, and may have swung the title on the last game of the year as they upset New England in Foxborough, giving Kansas City the #2 seed and a bye. 2nd year coach Brian Flores is looking to keep building this year, which is why it is so baffling to me why Tua isn’t starting. Maybe he’s still recovering, but to me, if you’re rebuilding, you want as many reps going to your franchise QB as possible! The Dolphins have gotten thoroughly wrecked each of the last two weeks, allowing 5.7 and 8.9 YPP. That is… *checks notes* not great! Facing a pass happy team in Jacksonville does not bode well for a team that just allowed 400 yards in the air to Josh Allen.
Jacksonville has had a surprising start to year to say the least. What almost everyone had pegged as one of the worst teams in the league has had decent showings in back to back weeks against divisional opponents. Gardner Minshew is picking up where he left off last year, completing over 75% of his passes thus far. Call it the power of the ‘stache, but Minshew Mania is alive and well for the Jaguars. After upsetting the Colts (and probably 25% of survivor entries) in Week 1, the Jags came right back and put a big scare into the Titans, and honestly outplayed them, outgaining them by 130, before Tennessee ended up walking out with the win. The Jags have had no issues offensively in the first two games, and I don’t see why this week should be any different.
We cashed our bigger bet on Monday with relative ease, but I’ll be damned that sweep continues to be as elusive as ever. I’ll be looking for Jacksonville to be throwing a ton tonight, and hopefully turning the game into a track meet. Fitzpatrick will be able to hang for a bit, but I think Jacksonville’s offense will be too much for the Miami secondary to handle.
Thursday Night Football Bets
Over 49 (-102)
JAX -3 (-105)
Minshew Over 267y (-115)
Season Total: 4-5-1, -.2x