Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL TNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 7 kicks off with what can only be described as the worst game of the year thus far. The 1-5 New York Football Giants at the 1-4-1 Philadelphia Eagles? I’d rather watch my 3-year-old try to do calculus. I begged Rob to let me pretend this game didn’t exist, but he rules with an iron fist, so here we are. The anemic NFC East is going to have a dozen matchups that we’re going to have, and I’ve never wanted a Madden Super Sim button for an entire division more. If you’re a fan of either of these teams do you even want to win the division? Only to have the distinction of being the first 6-win team to make the playoffs?
For New York, there isn’t much to hang your hat on. Saquon is out for the year, Danny Dimes is in a bit of a sophomore slump, and if nothing else, at least your defense appears competent. The Giants are top 5 in yards per carry allowed and top 10 in yards per play allowed thus far, but, have allowed 53% of 3rd downs to be converted as well. Bend but don’t break doesn’t work if you end up breaking on 3rd down anyway. Offensively, New York has been a dumpster fire personified. Showing up in the bottom quarter in YPP, YPA, and Red Zone Scoring, I don’t see any sort of indication that the Giants will be scoring a lot tonight. That is, if it wasn’t for the Eagles defense.
Philadelphia can only look back in disgust at their first 6 games. Their 1-4-1 record may actually be flattering as it took a last second TD to force OT and eventually a tie, with Cincinnati, and ironically, it may be that tie that ends up with them finishing in 1st by a half game. The Philly defense has had a decent showing, in the top half of the league in YPP and YPA, however, they are allowing 72% of red zone entries to be converted into TD, an abhorrent number. Offensively, it’s been a nightmarish fall for Carson Wentz. Wentz was an MVP candidate as little as 3 years ago and hasn’t looked the same since the Eagles won the Super Bowl. If you’re Philly, and you end up around 1-6-1 here by the bye week, you have to consider tanking for Trevor Lawrence, right? Wentz hasn’t been good enough, which is partially his fault, but he’s been running for his life because their offensive line is also a disaster. I’m not sure what this says about Doug Pederson, but knowing Philly fans, they’re already starting to turn on him.
As it turns out, hitching your wagon to Andy Dalton and the Cowboys was a horrible mistake! My God, that was one of the worst bets I’ve made in a awhile. Doubly frustrating to win the Allen prop by a casual 170 yards, only to have Dallas completely no-show. But a big part of my betting strategy is betting low odds so when we do hit a downturn, we aren’t pummeled by the vig. That said, we won’t be risking a lot tonight, as this game simply isn’t worth it to me. Two terrible teams on a short week, and all signs indicate that the only thing that will rival this shitshow will be the Presidential Debate tonight.
Thursday Night Football Bets
Eagles HT/FT -120 .5x
Daniel Jones over 28.5 rushing yards -110 .5x
Season Total: 11-16-2 -1.92x