Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL TNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 8 kicks off with a divisional rivalry between the ever-choking Atlanta Falcons and the upstart Carolina Panthers. Atlanta is coming off, and stop me if you’ve heard this before, a loss in a game in which they blew a late lead. Carolina is coming off two tough losses in a row to Chicago and New Orleans, two games that they had a good chance of winning that they let slip away. These two are clearly the two worst teams in the NFC South, so it makes sense we lined ‘em up for a primetime game.
Atlanta. Man. How do you get through the day as an Atlanta sports fan? I bitch a lot. A lot a lot. If I were an Atlanta sports fan, I think I would have just given up by now. Even getting rid of Dan Quinn wasn’t enough to wipe the choking stink off the Falcons franchise. 28-3 has haunted this team since it happened, and I don’t see any reason for it to stop anytime soon. But everyone is a choker until you win, just ask Andy Reid. To get into some tangible numbers here, when we think of Atlanta we think of a high-powered offense with a former MVP in Matt Ryan, two all-world WRs in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, and a former rushing champ in Todd Gurley. But somehow, despite all this talent, Atlanta has been surprisingly pedestrian offensively. Right at league average in YPP at 5.7, and converting 58% of red zone entries into touchdowns, Atlanta has left a lot of points on the board. To compound this, Atlanta’s secondary has been an abject disaster all season. Ranking last in the league by far, the Falcons are surrendering 8.5 YPA. They also allow 73% of red zone entries into the end zone, good for 28th in the league. It’s not great, Bob. It’s reasonable to expect a big day offensively for Carolina.
Carolina has a top ten offense through their first 7 games by almost any metric. The only place it is lacking, is where it’s most crucial, the red zone. Coming in at 27th in the league, scoring touchdowns at 52%, perhaps facing Atlanta is the prescription to their fever. Losing Christian McCaffrey won’t help, regardless of your position on whether running backs matter, but Mike Davis has been outstanding in his place. If Carolina is going to win this game, it’s going to be on 3rd downs. They are 31st in the league defensively, allowing a whopping 56% of drives to continue. Atlanta is certainly capable of making them pay, but let’s just say if you have faith in the Falcons to do anything right, you’re gonna have a bad time.
Well I was certainly right about one thing, a nice defensive TD when we have an under, but we cashed it and shipped home a nice couple of alt totals as well. Foles is really the master of the heave, isn’t he? Didn’t feel we deserved the L on that prop, but it was bound to happen with Chicago trailing for the entirety of the game. Definitely expecting to see some serious points put up tonight, but it is still Thursday, so fuckery will certainly be abound.
Thursday Night Football Bets
Panthers -2 -106
Panthers 1H Team Total Over 13.5 -120
Over 51.5 -104
Season Total: 16-17-2 +0.58x