Betting expert @SBJohn12 previews this week’s NFL TNF matchup and gives out his favorite bets!
Week 9 kicks off with what was supposed to be a premier matchup of the season with the Packers and Aaron Rodgers returning to his hometown to take on the 49ers of San Francisco. This was going to be an excellent midweek rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, and unfortunately it has been decimated by injuries. Both Jimmy G and George Kittle are out for the foreseeable future, and the nightmare season from hell continues for San Francisco. For Green Bay, they’re going to need this game desperately to keep ahead of Chicago for the division lead.
The Packers picked up where they left off last year and have been cruising through the first seven games, with the 2nd best point differential in the league thus far. Rodgers has led Green Bay to a top 10 offense in just about every regard thus far, ranking 4th in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, and 7th in red zone conversion rate. Defensively, Green Bay has been mediocre at best. Ranking about league average in YPP and YPA, its 3rd downs (18th) and the red zone (28th) where they have been at fault. Although the margin for error will be greater tonight facing Nick Mullens instead of Garoppolo, this is something that will definitely have to shore up if the Packers plan on making another deep playoff run this year.
As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers are having the season from hell in regard to injuries. This will be Jimmy G’s third missed game this year, in addition to the two games he’s left midway through. Garoppolo could miss the rest of the year, and we could have seen his last game in a 49ers uniform last week. A high ankle sprain will keep him out a minimum of six weeks, in addition to losing George Kittle for the year. If the Niners have a shot in this game, they are going to have to ride the coattails of their defense. San Francisco’s defense is excellent again this year, despite losing Nick Bosa for the year as well. Ranking 8th in YPP and 9th in YPA, the secondary is going to have to show up in a big way to keep Rodgers and co. contained. I’ll be looking for the Niners to bring out a couple of new looks defensively tonight if they expect to pull off the upset here.
Monday night’s game was about as sweat free as you could get with the Giants and the under cruising to bring home the teaser. Unfortunately for us the Bucs kept Danny Dimes’ legs at bay, just missing on our over prop there to juice out on a 1-1 split. Tonight, all signs point to the Packers exacting their revenge for last year’s NFC Title game. I’ll be looking for Rodgers to have a big night, with way more time to throw in this game than he did 10 months ago.
Thursday Night Football Bets
Packers -7 +100
Packers -1/Under 54.5 -110 .5x
Rodgers Over 2.5 Passing TDs +115 .5x
Season Total: 18-20-2 -0.67