Week 7 kicks off with a classic AFC West rivalry between the Chiefs and Broncos, two teams going different directions long term for the simple reason one has Patrick Mahomes and the other doesn’t. It hasn’t mattered the last couple weeks with the Colts laying the blueprint for the rest of the NFL on how to slow down the reigning MVP, simply playing keepaway. The same strategy teams used to implement against Peyton Manning is now being used against Mahomes. Unfortunately for Mahomes, this defense may be even worse than last year’s.
The Chiefs have had an interesting start to the 2019 campaign, running roughshod to a 4-0 start, lighting up the scoreboard just like last year. Except this time it was without Ty Hill, having lost him to a collarbone injury. Then came the SNF game against Indy. Indy kept the ball for roughly 2.5 hours of the 3 hour broadcast, limiting Mahomes and co. to just 13 points, the lowest output in his career. The Texans implemented this strategy to perfection in the 2nd half last week as well, limiting Mahomes to just 3 possessions. If the Broncos have any chance to beat the Chiefs, they will have to run the ball and bleed the clock from the opening kickoff.
You’ve probably seen a popular meme about how teams need to “establish the run” when we’ve seen how much more efficient passing is in just about every situation. Ironically enough, this is the exact thing that has proven to beat the most prolific passing attack in the last few years. The Chiefs run defense is so horrendous, they’ve allowed 186 rushing yards per game the last three weeks. The absence of Chris Jones, was glaring the last six quarters. The Colts game turned as soon as he went out and he is out again tonight vs Denver. Joe Flacco, stinks, and is too washed to win a game by himself. He’s going to need big games from Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman to give themselves a chance.
The Broncos defense has improved over the last couple of weeks, after getting off to a very rough start to the Vic Fangio era. Things seemingly got worse after Bradley Chubb was ruled out for the year with an ACL tear. However, the unit has turned things around the last few weeks, allowing just 4.5 YPP the last three games, including just 4.9 yards per pass attempt, both good for 3rd best in that stretch. Mahomes has been dealing with a bum ankle since week 1, the Denver pass rush has the talent to have a field day going against two backups on the KC OL.
The Packers barely deserved to win the game, let alone cover. But that doesn’t make Jamaal Williams sitting down at the 2 yard line after the Lions defense tried to let him score with 45 seconds left any less painful. Go figure that the Packers saw the insane game Jones had last week and decided to pivot to his partner in Williams to be the workhorse back this week. Another frustrating end to the week as we look to bounce back again.
- KC -2 -105 1st half
- Lindsay over 70.5 rushing yards -110 .5x
- Freeman over 52.5 rushing yards -110 .5x