Week 10 kicks off with an old-school AFC West California (for now) rivalry between the Chargers and Raiders. Both teams are going after a wild card spot as its very unlikely they will catch the Chiefs, who are up 2 games and have the MVP coming back this week. There’s looking like a massive logjam of 7 teams vying for the two wild card spots at the moment. Both teams are coming off home wins against NFC North teams, looking to use that to build momentum going into the second half of the season.
The Raiders have to be mentioned as one of the surprise teams of the season. After all the bullshit that went on in the Antonio Brown saga, Gruden completely tearing down the franchise and reshaping it the way he wants, to sit here at 4-4 with wins over the Lions, Colts, and Bears is impressive. They’ve missed their best WR in Tyrell Williams the last few weeks and he finally came back last week. They’ve missed 3 OL’s and 2 DE’s the last few weeks, and yet they just keep hanging around. I’ve been thoroughly impressed with their performance thus far. They have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 3rd with 6.2 YPP. They’re 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, and 12th in red zone TD conversion rate. Unfortunately, the defense has done them little to no favors. Opposing teams have been been able to move the ball with ease against the Oakland secondary, as they are surrendering a whopping 8.4 YPA, good for 2nd to last in the league. This does not bode well against a LAC team that we know loves to throw the ball around with Super Semen Rivers at the helm.
The Chargers have been just as confounding this year as they are any other year. Consistently inconsistent is just about the only way one could describe the enigmatic Philip Rivers Chargers. Just when you think you have this team figured out, they dick around and lose to the Titans. Then, two weeks later, they completely dominate the Packers. Fortunately for us, I believe that the big win from LAC last week has given us an inflated line this week. LAC also has a horrid secondary, averaging 7.4 YPA, good for 24th in the league. The Chargers do match up pretty well with Oakland’s offense, ranking top 10 in 3rd down conversion rate and YPP. However, in typical Chargers fashion, they are in the bottom quarter of the league in red zone TD rate. The Chargers do have two DT’s out as well, which should open some running lanes for star RB Josh Jacobs to run through.
A lot of signs pointing to a good amount of points being scored tonight, two high-powered offenses with injuries along the defensive line. As I mentioned earlier, I definitely feel this line is shaded too high towards LAC. To me, these are two pretty even teams, and with Oakland at home, +1 is way too much. We’ll be taking advantage of this in a couple different ways, and will be rooting for points once again tonight.
- Oakland ML +110
- Over 48.5 -110
- Oakland +7.5/Over 42.5 tease -110
- Tyrell Williams o3.5 recs .5x
- 13-26 -10.95x