John Warner analyzes tonight’s Thursday night matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans and offers up his favorite bets (including props) for the game!
Week 12 kicks off with another interdivision game between the Colts and Texans, likely to decide the AFC South. This is a massive game for Houston, having already lost the first matchup to Indianapolis, and a matchup with New England brewing next week. Houston is coming off a throttling at the hands of Baltimore, a very disappointing result considering Houston was coming off a bye before that premier matchup. Indianapolis, tied at the moment for the division lead, is coming off a trouncing of Jacksonville.
Houston has been one of the more inconsistent teams this season, as Deshaun Watson has put the team on his back 10 games in, with the toughest part of the schedule yet to come. Watson has led one of the premier offenses in the league, ranking top 10 in YPP, red zone conversion rate and 3rd down conversion rate. The offense hasn’t been the problem this year for Houston, the defense has been abysmal all year. Ranking in the bottom quarter in YPP, YPA, red zone TD rate and 3rd down conversion rate, Houston hasn’t been able to stop a nosebleed this year. With JJ Watt out for the year, and injuries in the secondary to Lonnie Johnson, Justin Reid, and Mike Adams, it’s not looking like Houston is going to be able to improve any time soon. Watson is going to have to work some serious magic tonight, and we’re expecting a lot of points to be put on the board tonight.
Indianapolis has had a fascinating season thus far, to say the least. The shocking preseason retirement of Andrew Luck was thought to put this season in the shitter for the Colts but they have been just fine with Jacoby Brissett in his place. Still very much alive for a division title, Brissett has led a very consistent Colts offense. Although they don’t have a top offense via YPP, they’ve been excellent on 3rd downs and converting their red zone entries into TDs. With one of the best offensive lines in football, the Colts have been able to maintain possession in their games and make the most of each one, despite the struggles of kicking legend Adam Vinatieri, and the injury to star WR T.Y. Hilton. Defensively, Indianapolis is right at league average in just about every category we look at, YPP, YPA, 3rd down rate and red zone conversion rate. With this matchup, I’m looking for time of possession to be key. I’m looking for a similar gameplan that Indianapolis led against Kansas City, playing keepaway from Watson via long sustained drives.
Go figure that Mahomes would throw for a career low in yards after not throwing for under 300 yards all year long. All that lip service about how the field was in fine condition before the game only to find out that was a complete lie, as guys were falling to injury and turf monsters left and right. I’m looking for Watson to play Superman tonight but I don’t trust the Texans defense to do their part, so we root for points.
- Watson o1.5 TDs -135 .5x
- Over 45.5 -110
- 16-34, -15.1x