John Warner analyzes tonight’s TNF matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears and offers up his favorite bets for the game!
Week 14 kicks off with two teams that played on Thanksgiving with wildly different results. The Bears and Cowboys face off at Soldier Field tonight with the Bears coming off a wild come-from-behind victory on the road against the Lions.
The Cowboys on the other end are coming off a complete ass kicking at the hands of Josh Allen and the Bills. And because they’re the Cowboys, there’s been nothing but drama the past week surrounding Jason Garrett and his job security.
For whatever reason, the media just can’t give credit to the opponent when it comes to the Cowboys, it’s always about what they did or didn’t do. The Bills just kicked their ass in every sense of the phrase.
If anyone follows me on Twitter, or regularly reads these previews, they know that I am big on stats. However, I don’t believe that stats are the end all be all, but should instead be used to complement the eye test.
These Cowboys are an all-time enigma. They have a top-5 offense in just about every statistical category. They have a top-10 defense in just about every statistical category. And somehow they have managed to be 6-6.
Just last Monday when I was dogging on Seattle for being very incredibly fortunate (more on that later) throughout this season, Dallas has been the exact opposite. How they have managed to be 6-6 thus far is as impressive as it is inept.
The media is justified in chastising Garrett for the results so far, because he certainly mismanaged the Patriots game. One could argue the Saints and Vikings games could have gone either way, but the fact that they don’t have a significant lead in this dogshit NFC East is insane.
The Bears are somehow still alive in the playoff race despite getting virtually nothing from the quarterback position for the entirety of the season. Incredibly, both of these teams have the same record, despite the Cowboys having a significantly better roster and an easier division.
Chicago still has an above average defense, although it has taken a step back from last year, but as we know, forcing turnovers is more or less random and unsustainable. Chicago’s offense however.. my God. They’re bottom 5 in just about every major category, and if there’s any saving grace, I guess, they’re middle of the pack in red zone TD rate. It’s not great!
I can’t tell if Trubisky’s confidence is completely shot or it’s just that he sucks but he has definitely taken a step back this year. He’s running less, he completely refuses to throw to his left, he doesn’t throw it deep, it’s ridiculous how limited he is at this point nearing the end of season three.
I know Bears fans are tired of hearing this, and they’re gonna hear it for the rest of time, but how you could evaluate Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes, and come away with trading up for Trubisky.. Just wow. Dude had like 14 college starts, it made no sense then, and it makes even less sense now, regardless of results.
But this is the timeline we are on, Titty is the QB, and it very well may cost Nagy his job after this year.
Last Monday was one of the stranger games I’ve watched in recent memory. We almost pulled one out at the end and then one of the best kickers of all-time in Dan Bailey misses an XP, totally changing the end game. We even caught a lucky break with the volleyball tipped pick six. But, we move on.
I’m liking Dallas here tonight, they still control their destiny, and are still a significantly better team. I got -2.5 on Tuesday but it’s good up to 3. Let the roller coaster continue!
- Dallas -3 -105
- Trubisky under 1.5 TD passes -135 (.5x)