For a complete list of props (which will be updated throughout the day!), check out Kevin’s section of the NFL Betting Guide!
CHI @ DET
DET -4 O/U: 37.5 2
Team Totals: CHI 20.5| DET 16.5
We could see ‘bags on heads’ in Detroit again, with the Lions coming in at 3-7-1 and losers of 4-straight. Lions have allowed 29.4 PPG at home this season (24 away), and 34.3 PPG in their last three games in Detroit. This line opened with the Lions as much as 1.5 point favorites (CHI -1 on average) and has been bet up to Chicago -4 with 79% of bets and 84% of the money flowing to the Bears. My assumption is the public is anticipating Jeff Driskell being out. Driskell isn’t anything special, but he just posted 268/1 against this defense so we know he is at least capable.
Lions have been a source for fantasy fun (50.1 combined PPG this season), but without Stafford, that trend is cooling off, they are 1-2 to the UNDER versus 6-2 with their QB.
Detroit’s home OVER streak will be in jeopardy this week, with Bears games combining for the fewest points per game this season (34.2 combined PPG, 3-8 to the UNDER). Lions home games have gone OVER the number in three straight and four of five (T-1st), but the public has bet the total down from 39 to 37 (71% of bets, 81% of $$ to the UNDER).
Chicago has struggled to get the offense going after showing so much promise in 2018 (25.8 PPG). They are averaging 17.1 PPG this season and 15.3 over their last three games, with two of the three being soft-home matchups (NYG, 27th defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders – DET, 24th). Bears have won and covered in 3-straight, out-scoring DET by an average of 8.6 PPG.
Bears come limping in to DET on the short week. RT Bobby Massie was hurt Sunday (ankle). They are also without Trey Burton, Adam Shaheen, and Ben Braunecker, their top-3 TEs on their depth chart.
That means they had to sign J.P. Holtz fromWashington and Jesper Horsted and Bradley Sowell from the practice squad. Horsted should get the “start” at TE, and would be the pass-catching option out of the two (using that term lightly). Don’t expect much if anything from these guys, as the first three on the depth chart, were terrible so it is unlikely options four and five will be the answer. Some outlets are floating the idea that ‘swiss-army-knife’ Cordarrelle Patterson (6’2″-238) will play some TE. With WR Taylor Gabriel also OUT and Patterson being the minimum price on DK, I was already thinking we is a guy to take a flier on in these big GPPs if you multi-enter. He is currently projected at 2% ownership, which is tough to find on a 3-game slate.
Bears D is still a top unit (6th overall DVOA, 4th fewest PPG allowed), staying relatively healthy this season outside of Akiem Hicks (IR), and Danny Trevathan, who will miss his 3rd consecutive game.
Lions have not been so lucky, with their starting QB out again along with their star RB1 who is on IR (Kerryon Johnson). Now Jeff Driskel (hamstring) is a game-time decision after getting in limited work. If Driskel can’t go, it’s David Blough time (undrafted rookie), which is a scary thought for all the Lions and this game as a whole (6.3 YPA, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 58% completion rate on 43 pre-season pass attempts).
UPDATE: So it goes when you write about the NFL, right after wasting my time looking at Driskell pressure rates he was ruled out. This makes the CHI D a lock if you (for whatever reason) still play cash games on a 3-game slate. Defenses can be volatile, so there is merit to fading in the huge GPPs, as they will likely be 50%+ now, especially on DK where they were already mispriced.
Lions Damon “Snacks” Harrison is questionable after limited work. He has been all season and then plays, but it is a short week so worth us monitoring. If he were to miss, we would bump David Montgomery. Snacks admittedly hasn’t been his dominant run-stopping self this season, but without him the Lions would be much more vulnerable up the middle if the 350 pounder sits out.
Safety Quandre Diggs was shipped to SEA, and CB Rashaan Melvin is OUT. Melvin is significant, as the Lions play a ton of man to man. Amani Oruwariye did a good job last week against Kelvin Harmon and the Redskins. The 5th-round pick from Penn State has very solid measurables and has another favorable matchup as he will likely draw Javon Wims while Darius Slay deals with Allen Robinson.
Pace and Play Calling
Bears have large splits when they are in neutral/positive game script in comparison to when they are down by 7 or more. That means if they control the game like the betting public thinks they will, this game is going to be a low-scoring, one-sided dud.
Driskel had a 42% pressure rate in his 3 starts, compared to Stafford’s 36%. It’s tough to take shots down the field if you have a defensive end in your face. CHI is only 25th in adjusted sack rate (16th in sacks), despite their 5th best PFF pass-rush grade, but it should be enough to Blough uncomfortable in the pocket. The big difference being Driskel has some athletic ability to extend plays with his legs, while Blough has the same athletic profile as DraftCheat.
In an attempt to protect (hide) Blough, you have to assume the Lions will lean on the run game for as long as the game stays fairly close.
Bo Scarbrough will be the primary ball-carrier after getting 32 carries in his last two, the most any DET RB has seen since Kerryon Johnson went on IR. He only has one target, with Ty Johnson and JD McKissic mixing in for 3-6 touches per game (9 combined targets, last two). That limits his upside while also making him very susceptible to being scripted out. He has three RZ touches in his two starts so presumably would be the goal-line back if the Lions can somehow make it there. CHI has allowed 5 RB TDs in their last 5 games and is only 19th in adjusted line yards allowed (4.31 adjusted yards per carry/3.6 RB yards per carry allowed).
We saw Kenny Golladay’s prop go from 62 receiving yards to 51.5 (-112) with the QB change. He is a big-play WR, and could cover that line in one catch. He has shown a very low floor this season with Stafford and Driskel (5 games under 60 yards, 3 under 35), so I have no interest in this line. He is now an overpriced commodity on DFS sites also, which will drive his ownership way down. If you MME, I would get maybe 5%, with the low floor comes a big ceiling and in a 3-game slate there are only so many ways to get an edge.
Marvin Jones is in the same boat, with us having no idea how Blough will distribute targets. For all we know he could look to his TEs or slot-WR, Danny Amendola who will run higher efficiency routes in the middle of the field. I had Marvin as a LOCK for the OVER 51.5, prior to the QB change, but with only a 4-yard discount, it is a fade.
Prop Alert: PointsBet still has the Marvin Jones UNDER Fantasy Points prop up at 13.5 (-110). We have him at 3 rec and 44 yards now with Blough, which would still give us a win even if he manages to score a TD. Jones has been UNDER 13.5 FP in 7 games already this season.
The TE situation was a mess last week, with TJ Hockenson, Jesse James, and Logan Thomas all in the mix for 37% or more, but no one over 44%. I think all these guys will be in the mix again, as they likely run more bigger/two TE sets to give the young QB more protection.
Marvin Hall went on IR on WED, so they signed WR Chris Lacy from the practice squad. Hall had a ridiculous 28.1 yard average depth of target. Meaning all of his 11 targets this season were deep shots (37.2 YPR). Hall is terrible, he could run go-routes down the sideline and that is it. Last week, he was responsible for one of Jeff Driskel’s 3 INTs, as he failed to make even a decent effort at a jump ball with the CB on a long pass attempt. Lacy isn’t going to turn many heads, but he is a big dude (6-3”-205) with good speed. Expect to see him for 10-12 snaps as we did with Hall, but with Blough under center, you can ignore him.
Mitchell Trubisky has shown signs of life in his last two of his last three games (19.7 & 20.92 on DK, with an 11 FP stinker sandwiched in the middle against LAR). The moderate success is, of course, related to pressure, which is Trubisky’s Achilles heel. My worry with him this week, even after delivering a 3-TD performance against DET in week 10 is play-volume and script. He tossed 3 TD passes on 23 pass attempts in that game which is Russ Wilson efficient. The low attempts kept him to 170 passing yards, which combined with one, even two TDs probably won’t be enough to win the slate considering he is projected at around 20%, the second-highest owned QB on the short slate. The matchup can’t be any better, DET is allowing 29 FPPG over their last 5 games, even with a bye-week last week against Dwayne Haskins, who left (easily) 20 FP on the field due to his inaccuracy. Trubisky is certainly not the poster-boy for accuracy, but he is MUCH better than Haskins at this point (can’t believe I just wrote Trubisky is much better than anyone, but here we are).
Prop Alert: I will be underweight Mitch in DFS, but I will hedge a little on the prop side, where he only has a 14.5 (-115) line at PointsBet.
Anthony Miller only played 55% of snaps after a season-high 88% against the Rams. He still got nine targets, so the usage was there again despite the snaps going back down to his season average. With Gabriel and the TEs OUT, we should see another high target day at a value price on DK. He will also be highly owned, but Trubisky is more comfortable fade for me, as there are only so many value WRs that could realistically see 10+ targets on this slate. Miller also has some TD regression coming, having been shut out this season after scoring 7 times as a rookie and 40 times in 37 games at Memphis. People like to bash this guy, which makes no sense to me. He has only been in the league for 26 games, while tied to one of the most volatile/inaccurate QBs in the game, this while playing in a run-first offense that changes its identity once every 2-3 weeks. If you play cash games, lock him in. In a 3-Max, I will have him on 2 of 3, with the one game being a full NO/ATL game stack.
Prop Alert: Like Trubisky, I will be underweight Miller too. With our projections showing 4.5 rec & 47.5 yards, you have to like getting -3.5 receptions at +110. I also will be playing the OVER 42.5 yards prop (-112) with him going over 50 yards in 5 of his last 6 games.
Allen Robinson is also in-line for a target share boost with all the injuries. He should see a lot of Darius Slay, who is back to his old tricks of holding down opposing #1 WRs. He held Amari Cooper to 3/38 on 6 targets (87.5%) and then Terry McClaurin to 3/42 on 10 targets (74.3%). Last time they matched up, Slay did not shadow Robinson, but Melvin was healthy. I think ARob finishes with 4-5 grabs for 60-70 yards against Slay on 9-10 targets (averages 8.6 targets, 5.7 rec., 69.5 yards per game).
Prop Alert: Allen Robinson UNDER 5.5 receptions (-134)
DET is 26th in adjusted line yards allowed this season, and have allowed big RB production this season, but they have been stingy over their last three games, even holding Zeke Elliott to a 16/45 line. The game script sets up very well for Montgomery, but he is a hard name to click due to recency bias. He hasn’t topped 60 yards in 4 games despite averaging 15.5 carries per game. The issue is mostly on the offensive line, with CHI ranked 29th in adjusted line yards and 29th per PFF. He could get there with volume and a TD, but Tarik Cohen is getting 55% of RB snaps regardless of game script (13.5 touches, last two). He has 19 targets to Monty’s 6 over their last three games which sets him up well against DET (5 rec./60 yards per game, plus 4 receiving TDs to RBs, last five games). With so little explosiveness in this offense, and all the injuries, I like Tarik here despite it being a game that doesn’t set-up as a traditional “Cohen” game. I have outlined Trubisky’s correlation to him before, but for those just joining us, the RB was heavily involved in all of Trubisky’s ceiling games last season. This season, they haven’t had a blow-up spot yet, but Trubisky’s recent improvement again correlates to Cohen being used more.
Preferred “Core”: Bears D, Trubisky, Miller, Cohen
GPP: Monty, Scarbrough, AROB, Golladay, Jones, Wims, Patterson
* DFS STRATEGY TIP *
You really don’t want a full-game stack in this “Turkey”, that is unless you are a 150 lineups player. There just isn’t a lot of scenarios that have this game scoring enough points to support a full game stack while also out-pacing the other two games.
When I say “game stack”, I mean at minimum, 4 skill position players from the same game, usually a 3-2, 3-1 or 2-2. Occasionally (like on a 3-game slate like today), you can go even further by stacking your entire lineup. The thought process being two games end up as penalty-fueled turnover fests, while one ends up in a shootout. This is not something that works well (or at all) on a full slate, but with just three games it is viable.
BUF @ DAL
DAL -7 O/U: 47
Team Totals: BUFF 20| DAL 27
Dallas returns home from a tough road matchup in NE in bad weather to host the Bills. Buffalo remains one of the better defenses from a yards per play and points per game allowed perspective, but they don’t match up well with the Boys, as they have become an extreme funnel D, ranking 5th against the pass and 26th against the run per DVOA.
Pace and Play Calling
Buffalo has a tendency to drag opponents into ugly games (15.7 PPG allowed), with them going UNDER the total in 8 of 11 games. That said, they have had an insanely soft schedule, playing MIA, NYJ, CIN, DEN, WASH, TENN, NYG, CLE. That is why the oddsmakers are not buying into the Bills being a dominant defense, setting the Cowboys team total at 27 (26.8 PPG this season).
If Dallas can score, this game could surprise, with Buffalo upping their pace lately (13th overall) and Dallas operating at the league’s third fastest pace. Bills even used no-huddle at their highest rate of the season last season. Again, if Dallas can get them out of their run-first scheme (6th highest rush rate), we could get a fun game with two big-play QBs going at one another. Dak has averaged 350 passing yards a game in Dallas this year, and Josh Allen is QB2 in his last 5 games, behind just Lamar.
The less positive outlook is the game stays close, they trade rush attempts and play-action passes and it never develops into a “game stack” kind of game.
What is great about both of these teams, is the targets/usage are concentrated on a few players for both teams.
Bills have a higher pass rate on the road (52.5%), which has led to some big home/road splits for Josh Allen. He is averaging 249.6 passing yards per game on the road compared to 185.3 per game at home (24 DK PPG away, 18 at home).
Prop Alert: This is one of my favorite plays on the day, thanks to PointsBet.com’s “Turkey Booster” bets. They have Josh Allen “boosted” down to 200 passing yards (-125), compared to 219.5 on most sportsbooks. I actually like the 219.5, so am all in on OVER 200 passing yards.
I tweeted out a few weeks ago that since Allen came into the league, he has a higher TD rate than Zeke Elliott, which is insane for a QB vs. the 90 million dollar man. Since then he has added to the ratio with three more to Zeke’s one. Knowing this, the TD props don’t seem to be set correctly, with Zeke at -225 and Allen +165. At home, against the soft Bills D, I am not saying I don’t think Zeke scores, I actually think he will…I am simply saying the value lies in Allen to score a TD (+165). His 35.5 rushing prop also stands out, as he has surpassed 35 rush yards in 10 games in his young career. Dallas allowed Jeff Driskel 51 and Daniel Jones 54 rush yards recently.
For DFS, Allen is my favorite play on the slate with him projected to be less popular than Brees, Ryan, Dak, and Trubisky. With a high-floor/high-ceiling combo, good price, and good expected script, he checks all the boxes.
Devin Singletary is handcuffed by Allen’s TD prowess, as well as AARP member Frank Gore, but he is also one of my favorite plays on the slate. He could technically link up with Allen for a passing TD, so I don’t hate that combo if you MME (mass multi-enter) in GPPS. That said, they aren’t correlated otherwise, as you ideally want then scoring on the ground, which takes away from one another. He is the “guy” now, playing approx. 70% of snaps over his last 5 games. We have seen him get 21 and 16 touches in two straight wins, but only 2 targets. My hope is if this turns into a shootout, he would get more involved in the pass game. He has been running a ton of routes as his playing time has increased, they just have not targeted him much. Dallas has the 18th rush DVOA, allowing 4.31 adjusted line yards per carry. They also allow the 4th most RB receptions per game.
Singletary still LEADS the NFL in yards per carry (5.8), which is nearly 2 YPC better than Gore is getting. He is 4th in juke rate, 3rd in yards created per carry, and 2nd in breakaway run rate. Eventually this guy is going to break out and I want shares when it happens. He is best as a run-back to Dak in a game stack, but he will also make it on a main GPP team in the 3-Max.
John Brown is another article favorite. I think last week was the first time we full-faded with the Chris Harris matchup, and he still made a play to score and savage a solid fantasy day. Brown moves around the formation and will not get a shadow in Dallas. Fueled by the explosion in MIA, Brown (like Allen) has some big home/road splits. He is averaging 3+ targets a game more on the road for +2 receptions and 38 receiving yards.
Prop Alert: John Brown OVER 4.5 receptions (+115) and OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-112)
Receiving yards Matchup: John Brown vs Amari Cooper (BROWN +105)
It’s a Cole Beasley REVENGE GAME. Unlike some situations, Beasley did not part on good terms with his former team, so I would not be shocked to see Allen look his way a few more times. He got 9 targets last week, the 4th game with 9+ this season. His 21% target share is 2x higher than third place Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox, who are both tied at 10%. Dallas has allowed production to the slot, including 6/98 – Jamison Crowder, 6/42 – Golden Tate, 4/48 – Danny Amendola, and 8/93 to Julian Edelman last week.
He is averaging 4.5/45 on 6+ targets this season. Currently I have only seen his receptions line at 4.5. I am not comfortable on either side of that line, as I project him with 4 receptions.
Dawson Knox and Isaiah McKenzie are the “other” pass catching options. You are hoping for a big play from McKenzie, as he only gets 4 targets per game as he runs go-routes down the sidelines. Knox is a guy I am very high on, he just isn’t getting consistent usage to trust. He only has 5 targets in his last two, but those were comfortable Bills wins. In his last positive game script (loss in CLE), he got 6 targets (4/55) which will get it done at $2.9k on DK. With solid CB play on the outside, Knox should see more usage in this game
PROP ALERT: Dawson Knox OVER 1.5 receptions (-118)
The Bills are not a great “paper” matchup, but again, I think scheduling has played a big factor in their dominance against the pass. Even after being held down in NE, Dak Prescott still has this offense ranked 2nd per DVOA behind only BAL. We just watched what a top-ranked offense can do to a top-ranked defense when BAL dismantled the Rams on Monday Night. If he and Zeke get rolling, I have no doubt they can reach their 27 point team total.
Ezekiel Elliott grinded out 126 total yards against NE last week and is once again in-line to surpass 100 total yards (Bills allow 136 total yards to RBs). He is projected to be approx 15% lower owned than Alvin Kamara, which makes him my RB1 on the slate.
Prop Alert: This is another PointsBet.com’s “Turkey Booster” bet. They have ZEKE at OVER 75 rush yards (-115), compared to 82.5 (-124) at FanDuel. I think he gets 100+ for the first time in four games so am OK betting this one at the normal line as well.
Amari Cooper smashes these home, national TV games since he has arrived in Dallas. His home splits alone are something to notice, averaging a league-best 134.6 yards per game at compared to 35.5 away. Still, he doesn’t seem 100% to me, after being held down in back to back shadow coverage situations against Darius Slay and Stephon Gilmore. Tre’Davious White is arguably playing better than both of those guys so you have to really believe in home cookin’ to invest much into Amari. For props, they have him at 4.5 and 64.5 receiving yards which is almost identical to what our projection model has.
The value here lies with Randall Cobb and my boy, Michael Gallup, who both get the advantage of running their routes away from White. Levi Wallace (109 passer rating in coverage) and will likely see more targets come his way with White occupying Amari (66 passer rating in coverage). Gallup has at least four catches in his last three games, leading the team with 29 targets over that span. Cobb has also seen a surge, getting 7.5 targets per game over his last four.
Prop Alert: Randall Cobb OVER 3.5 receptions (-145), and Michael Gallop OVER 3.5 receptions (-134).
Preferred “Core”: Zeke, John Brown, Allen, Singletary, Dak, Cobb
GPP: Gallup, Beasley, Knox, Amari, Witten
NO @ ATL
NO -6.5 O/U: 48.5
Team Totals: NO 27.5| ATL 21
With the uncertainty, not many sportsbooks have not released ATL receiving props. As news breaks and more lines come out, I will continue to update for DFS and post props in my section of the NFL Betting Guide.
I try to stay away from historical trends, when coaches, schemes, players are often different from year to year. But, when I saw this game on the schedule the first thing I wanted to look up was how often this game lived up to the hype and big total. Including the 37 point stinker from week 10, this matchup has indeed been a disappointment in comparison to how excited it makes us in fantasy/DFS/betting. I am guessing that trend is what is holding this game to a very modest 48.5 point total. Another trend that stood out from this season is the Falcons inability to score at home, which has led to their games going UNDER in four of five in ATL. They are averaging 17.2 PPG in the dome, and 26 PPG away. They have essentially been Denver at home and Seattle on the road, which is drastic. Both teams have been complete schizophrenics over their past 3 games, with dramatic swings from game to game, including one of this season’s biggest money line upset when ATL beat NO 26-9.
Over their last 5 matchups, this game has had an average pre-game Vegas total of 53.8 points, but it has only averaged 47.2 points, going UNDER in four of five. It has been even more of a bummer in those four UNDER games, with just one going over 50 points. That said, that “one” was a whopper, with the Falcons falling 43-37.
Pace and Play Calling
NO has turned up their pass rate with the return of Drew Brees, passing at a 69.35% rate in their last three, trailing only Jacksonville during that span. With the Falcons still holding up better against the run (11th rush/28th pass DVOA), opponents are encouraged to drop back more frequently. I have written about this affect multiple times this season so won’t go too deep, team’s that are solid against the run (TB, ATL, NYJ) and weak in the secondary are doing themselves a disservice, as they are forcing teams that are usually too stubborn (stupid) to do what’s right and pass more often. It is just simple math, drop backs/pass attempts create more yards/points at a more efficient level. By inviting Drew Brees to pass more than even he and Sean Payton want to at this point, ATL is setting themselves up for failure.
One of my first lessons as a gambler was “don’t bet against a hot-streak. Fade it, but no need to get cute and try and time the first loss of a team that has won 3 or 4 in a row. We saw it with SF this year, as everyone was banking on their first loss which didn’t come for nine weeks.Whether you believe in hot streaks or not, you can’t argue Michael Thomas is on fucking fire. He has 5-straight, 100-yard games and 6 of his last seven. His props are always fun to see, as they seem way too high every week and then he still ends up going over. He caught 13-152 in the loss against ATL and I see no reason to expect anything less, barring injury. He is going to run the majority of his routes at Isaiah Oliver, but they move him around so much there is no need to look at ATL CB play. He has an obscene 31% RZ target share (1st), to go along with his 30% target share (T-1st), and 71 weighted opportunity rating (T-1st, per AirYards.com). That means he actually has positive TD regression coming (6 TDs on 13 RZ targets).
Prop Alert: This is another PointsBet.com’s “Turkey Booster” bet. Mike Thomas OVER 100 receiving yards, boosted to +110. This compared to FanDuel that has him at 108.5 (-112). Again, I think the 108.5 is too high, but I’ll be damned if I am going to play the under against Thomas while he breaks Marvin Harrison’s all time reception record. Since I can’t play on this site in CA yet, and these Turkey Boosters have so much value, I may (or may not) have a friend in a legal state place a few of these as my proxy.
I also like MT to get in the box, so feel free to play his TD prop at -115.
We have had our eye on Russell Gage since Sanu was shipped to NE. Gage had a career high 10 targets against TB, posting 8/76 which will get it done at $3.9k. He got jacked up to $4.5k, which is still very reasonable considering Austin Hooper and his 18% target share is still out. The big asterisk next to Gage in this one is his value if Julio is a late scratch, which would make him one of the best value plays on the slate, if not #1. Same goes for Calvin Ridley, he is just more expensive.
Marshon Lattimore is also questionable, which like Julio makes a HUGE difference in handicapping this game. It’s not like Gage is a horrible play with Julio, especially if Lattimore plays and reduces his target share. He is only projected to be 10-12% on DK, which is low for a 3-game slate. That makes him a solid play with a shot at a great one. I will have one of my 3-primary GPP teams as a game stack, which will leave me the ability to do some late-swapping either using just players from this game, or if we get lucky we will know more by the Dallas kickoff which will allow us even more flexibility. I will be sure to stay on this situation all day and update. We want Julio for ATL, but we also want him for all the Saints, as Julio is one of the few players in the league that can move a line.
Prop Alert: This is another PointsBet.com’s “Turkey Booster” bet, boosting Matt Ryan all the way to 250 passing yards (-167) from his 284.5 (-112) line on most other sites. I realize he got 182 in this matchup, but we understand game script and play calling better than Vegas apparently. I see no way ATL holds Brees and company down again, which will get Ryan back to his usual pass happy self and over 250 yards. Even with the dud last week (271 yards), and the NO game, he still is averaging 293.4 passing yards per game this season. This one does have more risk than the rest of the booster bets, with Austin Hooper OUT and Julio Jones questionable. I am counting on Julio playing, so am comfortable taking the risk to get the value.
Preferred “Core” Plays: MT, Cook, Kamara, Ridley, Gage, Brees
GPP: Ryan/Julio (awesome GPP stack, swap to Ridley if he sits)
Don’t worry about leaving some money on the table on these short slates, like the Showdown slates, many times the “Perfect” lineup will not take all the cap.
With that in mind, go into this slate with the idea that you are ok late-swapping as news breaks. If you have 5-6 players in the late games, you should be able to swap throughout the day. That said, be ok with your original lineup if no significant news comes in (e.g. Julio plays).*