In part 1, we broke down the starting pitchers who have negative regression coming. Now, let’s look at the starters who may be headed toward an improvement in their ERA.
I’m not saying to blindly back these pitchers for the remainder of the season, but rather to look for spots where they can pitch to their strengths and are being undervalued.
Overall, this is a talented group of pitchers (except for Ivan Nova). Nova looks like he may have some good starts coming, but don’t forget he’s still projected to be a below average pitcher, overall.
The Astros have moved Colin McHugh back to the bullpen, so it will be interesting to see if he’ll get another shot at the rotation this season.
Notice the top two pitchers have LOB% in the upper 50’s, well below league average. Let’s keep an eye on these guys to see if they can get some of these other numbers back to around league average.