Let’s check in on our favorite degenerate, VFW Joe!
Joe is in a bad mood. The VFW has been closed for months, Walmart is telling him he has to wear a mask, and he’s lost most of his money betting on horses, but there is one cherry on top of this total lack of sundae: SPORTS ARE COMING BACK!
He invites the boys over for a poker game (no masks allowed!), and after some quick discussion about how “the liberals” are taking away his freedoms Joe moves on to his favorite topic….betting on sports.
“Sports are coming back in a big way and I’m going to clean up!” Joe says without the faintest hint of irony.
As we know, Joe loves long shot props, picking winners, and a good parlay, and throughout quarantine Joe has been reading up on some new methods that are “100% winners” and has devised a new “system” that is going to “murder his bookie”. It’s derived from a handful of trends tracking how teams fared the last time they played each other. Particularly, how a pitcher did the last 3 times they played a certain team.
“Think about it,” Joe says, “if a pitcher won 2/3 against a certain team, there is certainly something going on! These guys remember this shit and it impacts them the next time they play. If a team has lost their last 3 to another team, that is a huge mental block for them and puts them at a major disadvantage!”
Joe continues, unwavered by the deafening silence and awkward glances being shared amongst his patriotic companions, “So I have created a ‘database’ of every game and I analyze the data from the last 3 years on my Chromebook. All I have to do now is punch in a team and I can easily see who has the historical advantage!”
Quick reminder for all the readers: Joe is a loser. Joe is always finding foolproof systems he thinks will beat Vegas. He has been unsuccessful so far, but who knows? MAYBE THIS IS THE ONE!
Joe’s heroic, maskless band of brothers share one last glance across the poker table topper, each considering the implications for his own bankroll if Joe were to get carried away making wagers with him based on yet another one of his “systems”…
They collectively erupt with praise. This is a great idea! They cannot believe Joe was able to compile all that data. They don’t even have Chromebooks, so this stuff is way beyond them. Thank God Joe has such advanced computer skills! How did he learn to build such a complex system?
DON’T BE JOE!
System bettors are losers. Anyone who says they have a “system” should immediately be sent to Joe’s maskless poker game.
System bettors are always trying to find a fast, simple way to make bets. I have seen them all, and Joe’s use of trends (TR3NDZ!) to make decisions about future events is pretty common — it is 100% bullshit, but it’s common. Past events have no impact on future events, each game is a unique event unto itself and should be treated as such. As always, the only thing that matters is price, and past outcomes are not predictive of future outcomes.
Stay safe out there!